SKYWARN Newsletter #253

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Hello to all..

SKYWARN Self-Activation Report for Tuesday April 1st into Wednesday April 2nd..

SKYWARN Self-Activation Report for Saturday April 12th..

NWS Taunton SKYWARN Training Update (Goshen Session Added for Tuesday May 6th)..

NWS Gray, Maine SKYWARN Training Update..

Blue Hill Observatory Annual Spring Open House Saturday May 3rd, 2008..

Introduction to SKYWARN Presentation Given to Central Mass. ARA on Thursday April 24th..

ARES SKYWARN Coordinator presents WX4NHC Visit and National Hurricane Conference to BARC..

VoIP Hurricane Net Presentation on National Hurricane Conference On Web..

Video of Amateur Radio Workshop at the National Hurricane Conference Available on Web..

National Hurricane Conference Article: SLOSH and Hurrevac Training..

National Hurricane Conference Article: A Review of the Exhibit Hall..

National Hurricane Conference Article: Overview of Meteorological Presentations Given..

National Hurricane Conference Article: StormStudy Education Team Present at Conference..

Dr Gray Continues Prediction for Active 2008 Hurricane Season..

Basic Emergency Communications Workshop in Concord, Mass. Saturday 5/17/08..

ARES E-Letter Article: Hurricane Nets and National Hurricane Conference Article..

Newsletter Issued: 4/27/08.

SKYWARN Self-Activation Report for Tuesday April 1st into Wednesday April 2nd..

SKYWARN was self-activated on Tuesday Evening April 1st as a line of

strong to marginally severe thunderstorms swept through portions of

Southern New England. The line of storms produced small hail and

isolated pockets of wind damage as it swept through the region.

Western Massachusetts SKYWARN Coordinators, Ray Weber-KA1JJM and Eric

Tuller-N1QKO were actively monitoring the event for their area with

SKYWARN Coordinator for Hartford-Tolland County Connecticut SKYWARN

Roger Jeanfaivre-K1PAI also monitoring for Northern Connecticut.

Repeaters that were active included the 146.790-Vernon, Connecticut

and 146.94-Mount Tom Repeaters. A report of a tree down blocking the

road was received in Chesterfield, Massachusetts at 930 PM with 5

inch limbs down on Burnside Avenue in East Hartford, Connecticut at

1025 PM. In Tolland County Connecticut, 6 inch diameter trees were

downed in Bolton, Connecticut with Trees down on Box Mountain Road

in Vernon, Connecticut between 1033 and 1043 PM.

SKYWARN was active on the 146.970-Paxton Repeater through the

efforts of N1PJ-PJ Howe from Worcester County SKYWARN. At 1050 PM, trees

were blown down in Shrewsbury, Massachusetts with a tree and wires

down on Cona Avenue in Dudley, Massachusetts. A measured wind gust

of 59 MPH was reported in North Grosvenordale section of Putnam,

Connecticut per an APRS weather station at 1104 PM. Severe Thunderstorm

Warnings were issued for much of Northern Connecticut and Southern

Worcester County Massachusetts through this period. Warnings were

extended into Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts but the storms

weakened rapidly as they approached this area. The New England

Reflector System *NEW-ENG* EchoLink conference node: 9123/IRLP 9123

was also utilized for coordination of this activation.

After the line of storms moved through the region, strong general

straight-line winds occurred across portions of Southern New England

early Wednesday Morning. APRS weather stations reported the following

measured wind gusts:

Hudson, NH: 60 MPH at 452 AM

New Boston, NH: 60 MPH at 341 AM

Peterborough, NH: 51 MPH at 334 AM

Norwood, MA: 47 MPH at 218 AM

Stow, MA: 49 MPH at 545 AM

Some wind damage likely occurred particularly in Southern New Hampshire

and Northeast Massachusetts as a result of these strong winds that

occurred during the overnight hours.

Special thanks to all those who assisted in this self-activation of

SKYWARN!

SKYWARN Self-Activation Report for Saturday April 12th..

SKYWARN was self-activated on Saturday April 12th as a line of

thunderstorms moved through portions of Eastern Connecticut, Rhode

Island and Southeast Massachusetts producing small to marginally

severe hail. Additional thunderstorms affected portions of East-Central

Massachusetts producing small hail.

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings were issued in a swath from North-Central

and Northeast Connecticut into Central and Southern Rhode Island

into Southeast Massachusetts between 6 and 830 AM Saturday Morning.

SKYWARN was active on the 146.76-Scituate, RI Repeater through the

efforts of Rhode Island State SKYWARN Coordinator, Martin Mendelson-N1JMA.

Reports of Pea Sized Hail were received in West Warwick, Warwick and

North Kingstown RI as the storms moved through the area between 645

and 715 AM.

The thunderstorms moved through the South Coastal Massachusetts area

also producing Pea Sized Hail. Pea Sized Hail was recorded in the

Pope Beach Area of Fairhaven as well as near the Seaport Inn area

of Fairhaven via the 145.49-Fairhaven Repeater SKYWARN Net. As the

storms moved on to Cape Cod, Pea to 1/2" hail covering the ground

was reported by two different Amateur Radio Operators in the Forestdale

section of Sandwich. Penny Sized Hail was reported in Orleans near

the Rock Harbor area. SKYWARN was active on the 146.955-Barnstable

Repeater and the New England Reflector system *NEW-ENG* EchoLink

Conference Node: 9123/IRLP 9123 was active through the morning

thunderstorms.

Additional thunderstorms would form during the afternoon and early

evening hours as abundant sunshine and warm temperatures were

in place over Southern New England and a cold front approached the

region. One line of storms between 3-5 PM produced Pea Sized Hail

in Shrewsbury, Massachusetts but gradually weakened as the storms

moved eastward and became more "garden variety" in nature.

An additional line of thunderstorms would form over Southern Worcester

County into Norfolk County Massachusetts. The storms that tracked over

the region between 7 and 8 PM brought a swath of Pea Sized hail

beginning in Charlton and moving through Hopkinton, Milford, Upton

and into Westwood Massachusetts. SKYWARN was active on the 146.970-

Paxton Repeater where Bill-KB1ILH provided relay into the New England

Reflector system with the reports. Dave Doe-K1HRV was active with

Norfolk County SKYWARN providing information into the New England

Reflector system through the 146.895-Walpole, Mass. Repeater.

Special thanks to all those who assisted in this self-activation of

SKYWARN!

NWS Taunton SKYWARN Training Update (Goshen Session Added for Tuesday May 6th)..

The following is an update to the SKYWARN Training Schedule for 2008. We've

added one session for Tuesday May 6th in Goshen, Massachusetts. Here is

the complete schedule:

Thursday May 1st, 2008 7-10 PM:

WFSB-TV Channel-3

333 Capital Boulevard

Rocky Hill, CT

Sponsored by WFSB-TV and Hartford-Tolland County Connecticut SKYWARN

Directions: I-91 exit 23 West Street/Rocky Hill. If you're on I-91 southbound, turn left off exit ramp. If you're on I-91 northbound, turn right off exit ramp. Proceed in right lane and go past the Marriott. Take immediate right onto Capital Blvd. (Right lane must turn right). Channel 3 is on the left after a curve.

Monday May 5th, 2008 6:30-9:30 PM:

Monadnock Regional High School

580 Old Homestead Highway

Swanzey, NH

Sponsored by: Swanzey, NH Emergency Management and Cheshire County, NH ARES/SKYWARN.

Tuesday May 6th, 2008 7-10 PM:

Goshen Public Library

Route 9 (42 Main Street)

Goshen, Mass.

Sponsored by: The Town of Goshen and Western Massachusetts SKYWARN.

Wednesday May 7th, 2008 7-10 PM:

WWLP-TV Channel 22

One Broadcast Center

Chicopee, MA

Sponsored by WWLP-TV and Western Massachusetts SKYWARN

Thursday May 8th, 2008 7-10 PM:

Plymouth Emergency Operations Center (EOC)

44 Obery Street

Plymouth, MA

Sponsored by Plymouth Emergency Management Agency and Eastern

Massachusetts ARES/SKYWARN. Preregistration is required for this

session as the Plymouth site is limited to 25 people. Please contact

Rob Macedo-KD1CY or Aaron Wallace, Plymouth EMA Director for more

information.

Tuesday May 13th, 2008 7-10 PM:

Community College of Rhode Island (CCRI)

Knight Campus-Room 1134 on First Floor

400 East Avenue

Warwick, RI

Sponsored by: Rhode Island ARES and SKYWARN.

Saturday May 17th, 2008 1-4 PM:

Boston Museum of Science

Cahner's Theater, Blue Wing Level 2

Boston, MA

Sponsored by the Boston Museum of Science, WBZ-TV Channel 4 and Eastern Massachusetts ARES/SKYWARN

Note: Please be sure to bring Parking Tickets into the building for

validation for free Parking. Directions: http://www.mos.org/visitor_info/maps_and_directions

Wednesday May 21st, 2008 7-10 PM:

Worcester Emergency Management Operations Center

50 Skyline Drive

Worcester, MA

Sponsored by Worcester Emergency Management/Worcester Emergency

Communications Team and Worcester County SKYWARN

This schedule can also be viewed at the following links:

http://www.wx1box.org/mod.php?mod=userpage&menu=8&page_id=1

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/skywarnTraining.shtml

NWS Gray, Maine SKYWARN Training Update..

The National Weather Service in Gray Maine is also offering SKYWARN

Training in their County Warning Area. Details on scheduled sessions

can be seen at the following link:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gyx/spotters_skywarn/skywarn2.shtml

NWS Gray, Maine is interested in having more sessions in the months

of May and June in their County Warning Area per their web site.

Blue Hill Observatory Annual Spring Open House Saturday May 3rd, 2008..

The Blue Hill Observatory will be holding its annual Spring Open House

on Saturday May 3rd from 10 AM-4 PM at the observatory in Milton, Mass.

Admission is free. Details on the Blue Hill Open House can be seen

at the following link:

http://www.bluehill.org/events.html

Introduction to SKYWARN Presentation Given to Central Mass. ARA on Thursday April 24th..

An Introduction to SKYWARN presentation was given to the Central

Massachusetts Amateur Radio Association on Thursday April 24th. Approximately

35-40 Amateurs were present at the meeting. The presentation was given

by Rob Macedo-KD1CY, ARES SKYWARN Coordinator for NWS Taunton. Worcester

County SKYWARN Coordinator, N1PJ-PJ Howe was also at the presentation.

The presentation discussed use of the 146.970-Paxton Repeater for

SKYWARN operations and gave an overview of the SKYWARN program. It

described reporting criteria, do's and don'ts when SKYWARN is active

and described operations during a SKYWARN Activation at the NWS Taunton

office. The presentation also briefly discussed the VoIP Hurricane Net.

A portion of the Amateur Radio's Role in SKYWARN video was shown detailing

the activation of July 4th, 2006 which affected portions of Southern

Worcester County where the 146.970-Paxton Repeater was utilized. The

presentation was well received and resulted in several folks being

added to the SKYWARN Newsletter and Storm Coordination email list. To

those added, welcome to the list. Special thanks to the Central Mass.

ARA for their support of the NWS Taunton SKYWARN program.

ARES SKYWARN Coordinator presents WX4NHC Visit and National Hurricane Conference to BARC..

Rob Macedo-KD1CY gave a presentation to the Boston Amateur Radio Club (BARC)

Meeting which was held jointly with the Wellesley Amateur Radio Society

on Thursday April 17th on his visit to the National Hurricane

Center Amateur Radio Station, WX4NHC, and an overview of the National

Hurricane Conference. There were roughly 20-25 Amateurs present.

This presentation was created for the VoIP Hurricane Net and was

utilized for the meeting. The presentation had many pictures from

the National Hurricane Center and the conference.

Rob explained to folks the importance of the information gathered during

weather events and how it is utilized not only by the National Weather

Service but also Emergency Management, Media and other resources and

during hurricanes, how important the information is to the National

Hurricane Center. This was emphasized at the National Hurricane Conference

Amateur Radio Workshop. Rob also described the operations of the

Amateurs at WX4NHC who are entering their 28th year of service and

some of their key reports that have caused significant changes in

track forecasts or warnings. Rob also mentioned to folks how the new

National Hurricane Center Director praised Amateur Radio and its role

in hurricanes and other disasters at the conference through an interview

given by the Storm Study Education Team.

Dr. Gray Increases Number of Storms and reiterates Potential for Active 2008 Hurricane Season..

Dr. William Gray and Philip Klotzbach continue to foresee an active

2008 Hurricane Season and raised their number of tropical systems

predicted for this season. They also believe that there is an above

normal risk for a major hurricane to affect the US East Coast. Below

is a link to the complete forecast from Dr. Gray and Phil Klotzbach:

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/

VoIP Hurricane Net Presentation on National Hurricane Conference On Web..

A presentation on the WX4NHC Visit and National Hurricane Conference

was given on Saturday April 5th on the Monthly VoIP Hurricane Net. The

Power Point Presentation has been posted and a recording for the net

will be posted later this week. For more information, please check

out the VoIP Hurricane Net web site at http://www.voipwx.net and look

for updates on when the recording will be posted.

Video of Amateur Radio Workshop at the National Hurricane Conference Available on Web..

Through the significant effort of Jim Palmer-KB1KQW, North Shore ARES

Emergency Coordinator and Assistant SKYWARN Coordinator, a video of

the entire Amateur Radio Workshop at the National Hurricane Conference

is available for viewing via the web. It can be seen at the following

link:

http://www.nsradio.org/NHC08/

We encourage many folks across the NWS Taunton SKYWARN program to view

this excellent presentation at the National Hurricane Conference.

National Hurricane Conference Article: Hurrevac and SLOSH Training..

At the National Hurricane Conference, Rob Macedo-KD1CY and Jim Palmer-KB1KQW,

spent the first day of the Workshop at the SLOSH and Hurrevac training

session which was given by folks from FEMA Region IV based out of Atlanta

Georgia. Hurrevac is a program devised by John Townsend to help

Emergency Managers and planners as well as other folks who can utilize

the tracking software to plan support functions for hurricane

disaster related incidents. An Emergency Management Director,

NWS Forecaster or other similar public safety designee must send

a note to John Townsend to allow the person to have access to the

program. Information can be found on Hurrevac via the following

link:

http://www.hurrevac.com/

The FEMA trainers walked the people in attendance through the basics

of the Hurrevac program through a Power Point presentation along with

hands on training. Everyone who was a part of the training needed

to have a laptop computer with the Hurrevac program loaded. The trainers

then walked folks through more extensive parts of the program including

the evacuation maps among other important features. The training was

excellent and helped further folks knowledge of the power of the

Hurrevac program. The Hurrevac training was the morning portion

of the program. The afternoon portion of the program was on training

on the SLOSH program.

For the afternoon training session, a NWS HQ Meteorologist trained

folks in the installation and usage of SLOSH or Sea Lake and Overland

Surges from Hurricanes Display program. The SLOSH display program

allows users who are experienced with the program to either enter

in parameters from a landfalling hurricane based on the current

forecast or look at historical hurricane tracks and determine what

the storm surge would be given its track. The Meteorologist explained

what MEOWs (Maximum Envelopes of Water) and MOM's, (Maximum of MEOWS)

are and how to utilize them. He also explained the SLOSH models

dependency on the forecast and how inaccuracies that could occur

when using SLOSH are typically driven by forecast error and not that

a new model for storm surge predicting is needed. He explained how

to use the program to see gridded data depicting storm surge and also

to get specific point measurements using the program. The training

session was excellent and allows the Emergency Management community

to better understand the program.

National Hurricane Conference Article: A Review of the Exhibit Hall..

On Wednesday April 2nd, the Exhibit Hall was open to all conference

attendees and was open for 2 days. Jim Palmer-KB1KQW and Rob Macedo-

KD1CY went through the Exhibit Hall to check out what was there. Many

suppliers of various mitigation and structural engineering groups

were in attendance for those interested in learning more about how to

protect their homes from structural damage during hurricanes. Other

groups for mitigation that were present that were of interest in

emergency management included suppliers for temporary housing, sand

bagging and other operations.

Other groups in attendance included the American Red Cross and they

were very interested in working with the ARRL and Amateur Radio

Community on Health and Welfare Inquiry processing. Manager of

Preparedness and Response Dennis Dura-K2DCD met with the Red Cross

people at their booth to discuss working together there.

The Salvation Army was also in the Exhibit Hall. The personnel there,

while not heavily into communications, understood the value of Amateur

Radio Operators and their role in SATERN, the Salvation Army Team

Emergency Response Network. We discussed with the person there the

active Salvation Army groups in Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

The makes of the popular "Web EOC" program, ESI, were also present in

the Exhibit Hall. Jim and I met with Laura Wood who is their Business

Unit Manager. Laura is a Ham Radio Operator and was very interested

in how Massachusetts and other Northeastern States were using Web

EOC. She mentioned that they will be at the Citizen Corps Convention

the week of April 27th that will be held in Boston with FEMA Region 1.

The makers of Weatherbug were also present and we talked with Jon

Bodie who is a Ham Radio Operator, K1HSL, and we discussed with him

the usefulness of Weatherbug but made a suggestion for improvement.

That improvement would be to have time stamps for the peak wind gust

either since midnight or in a 24 hour period as well as for the

highest sustained wind. Jon was going to look into it and this will

be followed up on via email.

Folks from the Weather Channel and Max Mayfield's America's Emergency

Network were also present at the booth. The information, handouts

and pens and other items given to those conference attendees in the

exhibit hall were significant and it was a great way to learn more

about preparing your structure/home for hurricanes and to learn

more about the many groups involved in hurricane related disasters.

National Hurricane Conference Article: Overview of Meteorological Presentations Given..

At the National Hurricane Conference, a number of different tracks

can be taken as far as presentations that are offered. Those tracks

include:

Meteorology

Emergency Management/Mitigation

Fire/EMS

Voluntary Agencies

Law Enforcement

Tropical Islands

Engineering

Evacuation

Public Education/Media

Response

Recovery

Jim Palmer-KB1KQW and I largely took the Meteorology track with some

Emergency Management/Mitigation topics. This article will give an

overview of those presentations that were seen from Wednesday Afternoon

into Thursday.

On Wednesday Afternoon, a general session was given with several topics

of interest to all conference attendees. After a welcome from National

Hurricane Conference Chairman, Max Mayfield, new National Hurricane

Center Director, Bill Read-KB5FYA gave an overview of the 2007

National Hurricane Season discussing the tropical storms and hurricanes

and their impact and gave an overview of how he expects to proceed

with the National Hurricane Center.

Following Bill Read, R. David Paulson, Administrator of the Federal

Emergency Management Agency Headquarters in Washington DC discussed

improvements made to their organization since Katrina and their

response/recovery protocols. Unlike some newspaper reports, Paulson

did not say that ice would no longer be provided by FEMA but he did

say it would be lower in priority as far as resources provided as

FEMA's take is to provide higher priority items that may be more

difficult to obtain.

After Paulson spoke, Craig Fugate, Director of Florida Emergency

Management gave a very interesting discussion on Florida Catastrophic

Planning. The major theme of his presentation was on the "victims"

being able to be more prepared to face a catastrophic hurricane

situation and being able to assist themselves and others around them

as part of the response and recovery effort working with Emergency

Management and public safety first responders. Without that, the

chances of Emergency Management response even with a well coordinated

mutual aid of all branches of government will only go so far to meet

the needs of the people. Fugate stated it is very important to teach

a level of self-sufficiency to those affected by disaster so that they

can assist in the response and recovery effort for themselves and

promoted a "help your neighbor" approach for those that are less impacted

by the disaster to help those that are so severely impacted they cannot

help themselves. After hearing this information, we need to see how

this can be applied to our own voluntary Emergency Communications

response as Amateur Radio Operators.

During the coffee break, we met Max Mayfield, former director of the

National Hurricane Center who spoke very highly of Amateur Radio

Operators and remembered his visit for the Hurricane Awareness Tour

in 2003 in New Bedford, Massachusetts. We also met Bill Read-KB5FYA

and Dennis Dura-K2DCD, Manager of Preparedness and Response from

ARRL HQ took pictures with Bill. We learned that Bill has done

some Amateur Radio operation as the Meteorologist-In-Charge of

NWS Houston and wants to get his General Class Amateur Radio license

to talk on HF with Julio Ripoll-WD4R and John McHugh-K4AG, the Amateur

Radio Coordinator for the Ham Station, WX4NHC. Julio and John were

encouraged to hear about Bill's intentions and his praise for Amateur

Radio.

After a coffee break, Joe Becker from Red Cross briefly spoke on

Red Cross and Emergency Management. He spoke briefly on the challenges

the Red Cross currently faces with layoffs and their deficit from

disasters such as Katrina and how the organization will be reverting

back to more of the state lead approach with less "regional service

area" support which was the original support model they were moving

toward as an organization.

Following this presentation, Lieutenant General Robert Van Antwerp

Chief of Engineers and Commanding General of US Army Corps of

Engineers in Washington DC gave a discussion on managing flood risk

across riverine and coastal environments. He utilized several examples

including New Orleans as well as other impact to the Florida Panhandle.

Lieutenant General Antwerp gave a very enthusiastic discussion and

how they're making improvements despite the recent failure of the

levees in New Orleans.

The final presentation for Wednesday Afternoon was on the impacts of

Category 5 Hurricanes Dean and Felix. Dr. Lixion Avila, Hurricane

Specialist for the National Hurricane Center walked folks through

the track of Dean and Felix as well as the recon missions associated

with these hurricanes. He illustrated the reasonably good track

guidance especially for Dean and showed the southward bend of the

track of Felix that caused the primary impact of Felix to be felt

over Nicaragua versus Honduras. He also showed the damage pictures

from the areas affected across Mexico, Central America, Jamaica and

the Caribbean islands. The Conference then adjourned for Wednesday.

On Thursday, the presentations started in the morning and Jim and I

remained largely reviewing presentations on the Meteorology track

of the conference. The first topic was on Hurricane Forecasting and

this was kicked off By Richard Knabb on how observations and

analysis of tropical cyclones is completed and how the observations

and computer model and satellite guidance information put together

allow for better forecasts. We talked with Richard Knabb at the break

as Richard Knabb was one of the Hurricane Specialists who was at the

Rhode Island Hurricane Awareness Tour.

Track forecasting was then discussed by Hurricane Specialist Lixion

Avila. He explained the difficulties that can occur with track forecasting,

which can include model spread but also models clustering on a solution

that despite good consensus could still be incorrect. He also explained

one case where a 120 hour track forecast that they produced only had an

8 nautical mile track error but not before larger mileage errors in

earlier forecast points and how they need to improve their track forecasts

in those situations.

After a break, the next Meteorology Module was on Tropical Cyclone

Hazards. The first topic in this module was on Rainfall and its impacts.

John Feidt, the Hydrologist-In-Charge of the Southeast River Forecast

Center and David Roth, Forecaster of the Hydrometeorological Prediction

Center gave a presentation on their rainfall forecasts and how that

rainfall impacts inland river and streams. They also discussed the

impact of rivers that flow out into the ocean and how rainfall and

storm surge impacts can affect rivers and streams and flooding in those

areas.

Steven Baig, Storm Surge Specialist, then gave a very interesting

presentation on Coastal Storm Surge and the greatest potential for

loss of life in storm surge situations. He discussed Storm Surge

forecasting and the impacts of storm track, speed and intensity

on storm surge. This was one of the more interesting segments of

the presentation.

Chris Landsea, Science and Operations Officer for the National Hurricane

Center, gave a very interesting talk on Hurricane Force Winds. He discussed

the terrain impacts as well as the affect of skyscrapers and how winds

at the higher terrain and on skyscrapers will be considerably higher

than lower elevation locations. Landsea even mentioned how the

Appalachians and Northeast US with their higher terrain locations can

be vulnerable particularly with faster moving hurricanes that can

affect these areas.

Roger Edwards from the Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma

then gave a brief presentation on Hurricane induced

tornadoes and their impact. He stated that research is ongoing on

their impact across various tropical systems, hurricanes and remnant

tropical systems.

After Lunch, Jim and I deviated from the meteorology track and went

into the mitigation track for a presentation on the new Hurrevac

program due out in 2010. This program will be rewritten in Visual

Basic.Net to prevent memory leaks and other issues that have occurred

in the current revision of the program. It will also allow for new

features to be added. The presentation showed some of the new screens

and features that are currently being worked. This presentation was

well received and was given by Michael Shuster from the US Army

Corps of Engineers as well as Karen Townsend from Sea Island Software.

She is the wife of John Townsend, a former NWS forecaster and the

author of the Hurrevac software.

After a coffee break, we went back into the meteorology track and went

to the future of Hurricane Forecasting module. In this presentation,

Lixion Avila mentioned enhancements to the GFDN model that should

improve its performance over the course of this year based on hindsight

review of past hurricanes. He also stated that this model information

is available through various web sites. He also discussed 2 new consensus

type modeling schemes that will be utilized for the 2008 season. He

explained how the consensus modeling schemes combine the outputs of

various models into one track. These include popular models such

as the UKMET, NOGAPS, GFS and GFDL/GFDN models.

Following that presentation, Hurricane Specialist Richard Pasch,

went into a review of improvements to the hurricane models. Pasch

discussed work being done between TAFB, the National Hurricane Center

and other entities to improve the models and how these improvements

should be translated into better forecasts. The focus of these

improvements centered around intensity forecasting though some track

improvements were also being considered. Intensity forecasting remains

a serious weakness in the overall forecasting scheme for hurricanes.

Pasch said that while track improvement forecasting is always being

worked, particularly in the 3-5 day range, the most focus is being

given to intensity forecasting especially given several rapidly

intensifying hurricanes experienced over the past several years.

The final presentation for Thursday Evening was on an overview of the

Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) and the Hurricane Forecast Improvement

Project by Shirley Murillo and Ahsha Tribble. Shirley and Ahsha

reviewed the improvements they are working on currently and the need

for feedback on those improvements. Surveys were handed out to those

in attendance on what areas they would like to see focus and why

folks feel the focus should be in those areas. They mentioned short

term projects that have small funding and longer term projects where

they are hoping for much large money to fund the projects that those

in the Emergency Management and private industry communities feel

are the most important. This concluded the sessions attended at the

National Hurricane Conference as Jim and I did not attend the

concluding general session on Friday Morning.

National Hurricane Conference Article: StormStudy Education Team Present at Conference..

The Storm Study Education Team was present at the National Hurricane

Conference and did a great job promoting hurricane awareness and landed

a very important interview with new Director of the National Hurricane

Center, Bill Read-KB5FYA that has been promoted widely by the ARRL and

other media outlets. The Storm Study team is run by John Van Pelt-K4JVP,

Assistant SKYWARN Coordinator for Central Carolina SKYWARN and Danny

Musten-KD4RAA, IRLP Net Manager. Also present and assisting the operation

was Brandon McLamb-KG4EDW.

The Storm Study Team is an educational/hurricane awareness program. They

promote hurricane preparedness through the Energizer, Plan, Prepare,

Protect program. John Van Pelt spoke to over 40 TV stations across

the US East and Gulf Coasts to promote Hurricane, Weather and Disaster

Related preparedness through a Satellite feed to these TV stations

across 6 hours on Wednesday April 2nd. The Storm Study program with Energizer worked

with the Boys and Girls Clubs of America in Orlando and taught kids

how to prepare for disasters with a 5,000 dollar donation to that

organization through Energizer. The same donation was given on a

visit to the Orlando Fire Department.

The Storm Study team also attended the Amateur Radio Workshop through

the efforts of Danny and Brandon. They enjoyed the presentation very

much and were able to meet with Julio Ripoll-WD4R and John McHugh-K4AG,

the National Hurricane Center Amateur Radio Station WX4NHC Coordinators.

John Van Pelt-K4JVP also met with the coordinators as well.

The VoIP Hurricane Net Management Team members, Rob Macedo-KD1CY and

Jim Palmer-KB1KQW also met with the StormStudy team and watched some

of the video interviews that John-K4JVP did and we met with Danny-KD4RAA

shortly before the Amateur Radio Workshop on the Tuesday Morning April 1st.

The StormStudy Team also had a great interview with National Hurricane

Center, Bill Read-KB5FYA and talked to him on a variety of subjects

including Amateur Radio and its importance. A wrap-up video of their

interview with Bill Read and all of their work at the National Hurricane

Conference can be seen via their web site at http://www.stormstudy.com where

you will see the videos and information about one-half to two thirds

down the main web page.

Basic Emergency Communications Workshop in Concord, Mass. Saturday 5/17/08..

There will be an Emergency Communications Workshop on Saturday May

17th, 2008 from 9:00 AM-4:00 PM at the Emerson Hospital in Concord,

Massachusetts.

This session is being put on by the ARES Section Staff through the

efforts of Middlesex County ARES DEC, Steve Telsey, N1BDA, and the

cooperation of the Concord Hospital staff. This Emergency

Communications Workshop will provide the background and information

to serve Amateur Radio Operators when they need to respond to a

communications emergency. It will feature an Introduction and

Conclusion to Emergency Communications, and five 1-hour training

sessions on topics including:

Overview of Eastern Massachusetts ARES-RACES-SKYWARN Programs

Net Operations

NTS Traffic Message Handling

Basic Overview of ICS

Go Kits

This training will also feature a 1-hour lunch that will be provided

at no coerced cost to any Amateur who attends the session.

The presentations will be given by other Amateur Operators well

versed in the topics listed above. The training will be a worthwhile

endeavor not just for emergency communicators but for anyone who is

an Amateur Radio Operator, and wants to learn more about the hobby.

Preregistration is requested but is not required in case anyone would

like to attend at the last minute. Please try to preregister by

Monday May 12th, 2008 to assure the meeting place is setup properly

and we have enough refreshments for breaks between lectures and for

the lunch break. We will, however, accept any last minute

preregistrations after that day or any walk-ins as long as space

permits.

Directions to the Emerson Hospital:

http://maps.yahoo.com/#mvt=m&lat=42.459915&lon=-71.347799&zoom=13&q1=Concord%2CMA

http://www.mapquest.com/maps/Emerson+Hospital:Concord+MA/#a/search/l:::Concord:MA::US:42.4603:-71.349403:city:Middlesex+County/m::7:42.43637:-71.255405:0:0:/so:Emerson+Hospital:::d::25:::::/e

From the North:

Rt 495 South to Rt 2 East or Rt 128 S to Rt 2 West

Emerson Hospital is on the south side of Rt 2 about 1 mile east of

the Concord Rotary

From Boston:

Rt 2 East over Rt 128

Emerson Hospital is on the south side of Rt 2 about 7 miles from

Rt 128

From the South:

Rt 495 North to Rt 2 East or Rt 128 North to Rt 2 West

Emerson Hospital is on the south side of Rt 2 about 1 mile east of

the Concord Rotary

Parking, both outdoor and indoor, is available at the hospital for a

fee. There is free parking in lots on the north side of Rt 2, but

crossing the highway can be difficult.

There will be talk-in on the Concord 145.11 (pl 110.9) repeater.

For any additional information and to preregister for the workshop,

please contact:

N1BDA-Steve Telsey steve.n1bda@verizon.net

KD1CY-Rob Macedo rmacedo@rcn.com

This training should be a worthwhile endeavor for anyone interested

in learning more about emergency communications and amateur radio in

general.

ARES E-Letter Article: Hurricane Nets and National Hurricane Conference Article..

The following article appeared in both the ARES E-Letter and the ARRL

Letter concerning active nets that monitor hurricanes as well as on

the National Hurricane Conference. See article below:

It's that time of year when hurricane season preparation ratchets up:

the National Hurricane Conference was held in Orlando earlier this

month, and state and county EMAs are currently checking plans and

assets. Now is also the time for ARES members to assess their

portfolio of communications equipment and disaster response

knowledge.

Monitor major HF hurricane networks during events this season. The

Hurricane Watch Net on 14.325 MHz, is one of several key players. It

serves either the Atlantic or Pacific during a watch or warning

period and coordinates with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in

Miami. Frequent, detailed information is issued on nets when storms

pose a threat to the US mainland. In addition to hurricane spotting,

local communicators may announce that residents have evacuated from

low-lying flood areas. Other amateurs across the country can help by

relaying information, keeping the net frequency clear and by

listening. See <http://www.hwn.org/>. The net works closely with the

hams at the NHC station WX4NHC <http://www.wx4nhc.com/>

The SATERN Net (Salvation Army Team Emergency Radio Network),

provides emergency communication support to the Salvation Army and

populations at large. They also handle health-and-welfare traffic.

SATERN holds high profile nets on 20-meters (14.265 MHz) during major

hurricanes, and has a long history of excellence, discipline and

service. Refer to the SATERN Web site <http://www.satern.org/>.

The Maritime Mobile Service Net (MMSN) meets on 14.300 MHz and is

composed of hams who serve and assist those in need of communications

on the high seas. According to its Web site <http://www.mmsn.org/>,

the primary purpose of the net is for handling traffic from maritime

mobiles. The network is recognized by the United States Coast Guard

and has an excellent working relationship with that agency. The MMSN

has handled hundreds of incidents involving vessels in distress,

medical emergencies in remote locations and passing health and

welfare traffic in and out of affected areas. They also work closely

with the NWS and NHC by relaying weather reports from maritime

stations.

The VoIP SKYWARN and Hurricane Net operates by combining both the

Echolink and IRLP linked repeater networks, while handling critical

wide area communications during major severe weather and tropical

events. These operations have gained national stature in recent

years, and provide excellent service. Whenever tropical weather is

imposing a threat to the U.S. mainland and certain other areas of

interest, the VoIP WX-NET will be fully operational. See

<http://www.voipwx.net/>.

During hurricane events, there are usually two or three regional nets

(on 40 or 20 meters) that spring to prominence as major, key assets

to the disaster response on an ad hoc basis. Watch for these nets, as

well as the nationally-recognized networks above, this season. Don't

transmit on their frequencies unless you are absolutely sure you have

something substantive to add, and then only under the direction of

the net control station.

+ ARES Confers at National Hurricane Conference, Orlando

National Hurricane Center (NHC) Amateur Radio station coordinators

John McHugh, K4AG, and Julio Ripoll, WD4R, discussed the interaction

and importance of Amateur Radio in the forecasting of tropical events

at the Amateur Radio Session of the National Hurricane Conference

earlier this month. McHugh also discussed the Caribbean Amateur Radio

Meteorological Emergency Network (CARMEN) program, outlining how the

program in its current stage can use revitalization and rebuilding to

provide improved information to the NHC.

Director of Operations for the VoIP Hurricane Net Rob Macedo, KD1CY,

presented a detailed overview of the system that integrates EchoLink

and the Internet Radio Linking Project (IRLP). For the past few

years, this operation has been building to become another reliable

source of information for the National Hurricane Center.

ARRL HQ's EmComm Manager Dennis Dura, K2DCD, and Macedo offered the

final Amateur Radio presentation of the Conference, "Disaster

Intelligence and Situational Awareness Utilizing Amateur Radio." This

discussion went beyond the traditional uses of Amateur Radio into the

areas of damage assessment, infrastructure monitoring, communications

systems replacement and rapid situational analyses.

[The National Hurricane Conference has a long history of support of

Amateur Radio operators, waiving registration fees for those

attending its special session on Amateur Radio. For years, the

session has welcomed luminaries from the emergency management arena.

We thank the National Hurricane Conference for this support. -- ed.]

+ National Hurricane Center Director Lauds Hams

National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read, KB5FYA, praised Amateur

Radio at the National Hurricane Conference in Orlando, Florida,

earlier this month

<http://www.voipwx.net/local/Bill_Read_on_Ham_Radio_Hurricane_Confere

nce2008.wmv>. "Ham radio has always played a critical role in

emergencies," Read said. "What goes out when you have a high wind

event or major flooding is the communications system, so you lose

even cell phones, landline phones, commercial radio and TV. In those

cases, ham radio operators that can put up emergency transmitters and

antennas in the wake of a storm can give us reports that are

valuable. They also help in the search and rescue efforts in the

aftermath." The NHC has a dedicated amateur station on-site -- WX4NHC

-- and has worked closely with hams for decades. -- Dan Musten,

KD4RAA, and John Van Pelt, K4JVP, AEC for Central Carolina Skywarn

That's all for this edition of the SKYWARN Newsletter!

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)

ARES SKYWARN Coordinator

Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator

Pager #: (508) 354-3142

Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)

Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)

Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)

Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com

http://ares.ema.arrl.org

http://www.wx1box.org

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